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Since the beginning of 2017, mortgage interest rates have been rising along with rising house prices and continued tightening of real estate regulation. According to the statistics of the September 20th Housing Mortgage Analysis Report released by Rong 360, the average interest rate of national mortgages rose slightly to 5.70% in September, and has risen for 21 consecutive months.
So, how much is the impact of mortgage interest rate increases on homebuyers? With the current national first-home loan average interest rate of 5.46% loan of 1 million yuan, 30 years of equal principal and interest repayment, only interest will need to repay about 1,350,000 yuan, and the interest that needs to be repaid in the same period last year is about 81. .76 million yuan, the interest expense in one year was 21.74 million yuan.
Although the national mortgage interest rate has risen in full, the increase has begun to narrow. At the same time, recently, some cities in Beijing, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Foshan and other cities have seen the phenomenon of lowering mortgage interest rates. This is also the first time since last year that the multi-city mortgage interest rate has been lowered. For example, since October, Bank of China Guangzhou Branch lowered the first home loan interest rate, which was lowered from 15% to 10%.
At present, the four major banks in the Guangzhou region have implemented a 10% interest rate for the first home loan interest rate and a 15% policy for the second set. Some small and medium-sized banks, such as China Everbright Bank and Minsheng Bank, have implemented the first set up 25%, which is 5 percentage points lower than before. At the same time, in addition to some banks' loose interest rates on mortgage loans, the rate of money laundering by buyers has also increased significantly. It has to be queued for one month before lending, but now it can be paid for one week.
Then, why do some regional banks need to fine-tune the mortgage interest rate under the trend of rising national mortgage interest rates? On the one hand, the central bank’s recent monetary policy is biased towards easing. For banks, the cost of financing has dropped, the funds in the hands are abundant, the speed of lending has also increased, and the interest rate on the first home loan has been appropriately lowered, which helps to alleviate the pressure on the purchase of houses.
On the other hand, near the end of the year, there is still a balance in the bank credit line. In the eyes of banks, the mortgage business is still a fragrant. And all banks must rush their earnings before the end of the year. Therefore, the competition for loan customers is also very fierce. Individual banks in some cities have lowered their mortgage interest rates as well.
In response to the current interest rate cuts by individual banks in some cities, some insiders said that the room for mortgage interest rates has been limited and will even enter the down cycle. However, we believe that it is still too early to say that the banking industry will enter the downturn cycle of mortgage interest rates. The mortgage interest rate will rise steadily and will become mainstream.
First of all, the current national mortgage interest rate hike is the main tone, and the general direction of the policy has not changed. As of the end of September 2018, the national personal housing loan balance was 24.88 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.9%, and the growth rate dropped by 4.3 percentage points from the end of the previous year. The growth rate of personal housing loans has reached a low level in the past five years. The data shows that personal mortgages are also in the process of cooling down.
Although some experts worry that mortgage interest rates will rise, it will increase the pressure on home buyers to repay loans. However, in fact, the current average interest rate of domestic mortgage loans is still in the middle of the historically low level, leaving a high level of 7%, there is still a long way to go. In order to compete for the source of customers, some banks have lowered their mortgage interest rates at the end of the year, but this is difficult to form a climate.
Moreover, due to the regulation of the property market and the impact of high housing prices, the current residential mortgage business is much more risky than in the past. When some banks have loan quotas, they will be relaxed. Once the quotas are used up, they may be tightened.
Because there is a mismatch between the lower mortgage interest rate and the higher mortgage risk, that is, the benefits and risks are not proportional. Therefore, as the number of cities with falling house prices increases, bank lending will tend to be cautious, and it is impossible to cut mortgage rates on a large scale.
Finally, banks in some regions have lowered their mortgage interest rates, and the adjustment rate is not large. The downward adjustment is about 5 percentage points. At most, it is only a symbolic downgrade, which has a limited effect on those who just need to buy a home, but has less impact on speculative demand. Such a decline in mortgage interest rates, even for the just-needed group, the mortgage incentives are not very strong, like the chicken threat.
In the case of the rise in national mortgage interest rates, some banks have fine-tuned the mortgage interest rate, which is mainly due to the abundance of bank credit lines and the solicitation of customers for the performance of the year before the end of the year. The overall upward trend of domestic mortgages will not change, and real estate regulation will not relax. Domestic real estate will go to speculation and return to the residential property.