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In the past two years, from the fourth quarter to the beginning of the second year, paper prices have always been able to get out of a wave of bull markets, and this year's paper market is extremely low. On November 12th, the CCTV Financial Channel "Economic Information Networking" column made a special report on the waste paper and packaging paper market, pointing out that whether it is waste paper or finished paper, it is a bit "cold" this winter.
This CCTV Finance surveyed Shanying Group, Hexing Packaging and other enterprises, covering the entire industrial chain from waste paper packaging stations to paper mills to carton factories, pointing out the frequent fluctuations in paper prices, bringing very good to upstream and downstream enterprises. Big risk. In order to stabilize price volatility, various links in the industry chain are seeking new development models.
The price of raw paper and waste paper fell to 1,000 yuan / ton, and the waste paper packing station is no longer ready to press
At a waste paper packing station in Xiamen, Fujian Province, the owner Feng Zhongjun introduced that his packing station is now buying about 30 tons of waste paper a day. On his record of waste paper purchases in recent months, you can see this year. The price of waste paper for half a year has been oscillating downward.
Feng Zhongjun, a waste paper purchaser in Xiamen, Fujian: On November 6, it was 1,700 yuan per ton, 2,500 yuan per ton in July, and 800 yuan per ton, which fluctuated greatly.
At Feng Zhongjun's waste paper packing station, the warehouse was almost full of packaged waste paper. He revealed that these were all waste paper currency. The stock was nearly 500 tons, which was acquired around September. The purchase price was 2,300 yuan. / ton or so, at least to sell 2,400 yuan to not lose money. But what I didn't expect was that from September to now, the price continued to decline, and now it can only sell for 2,000 yuan / ton, one ton will have to pay more than four hundred yuan.
Feng Zhongjun, a waste paper purchaser in Xiamen, Fujian: This may be the most inventories since I started making waste paper in the past five or six years. The loss should be the largest and most. Not selling it in time, it would rise, I didn’t expect it to go down.
It is understood that from the end of May this year to the present, the prices of all kinds of packaging paper products continue to fluctuate downwards. The price of corrugated paper has dropped from 5,100 yuan / ton at the end of May to the current 4,000 yuan / ton, a drop of nearly 22%, the price of cardboard paper from 5,600 yuan / ton fell to 4,300 yuan / ton, a drop of 23%.
The price of finished paper fell, and the price of waste paper fell. The price of first-grade used cardboard paper dropped from 3,200 yuan/ton at the end of May to the current 2,200 yuan/ton, a drop of more than 30%.
Tang Yanju, deputy secretary-general of the China Recycling Resources Recycling Association: Since the beginning of this year, the price of waste paper has basically been a "several" shape, rising all the way from the beginning of the year to April, and began to fluctuate all the way down in May. Regarding this round of decline, whether it is a waste paper recycling company or a paper mill, it is not expected.
Xu Hanyang, deputy general manager of Xiamen Hanyangda Environmental Material Recovery Co., Ltd.: I will not prepare for backlogs in the future. If today is enough for a car to pull away, the risk of the enterprise is relatively small.
Increased supply, weakened demand, pressure on paper mills and carton mills
During the "Double Eleven" period, it is reasonable to say that the demand for cardboard boxes is high, but compared with the rising paper prices in the first half of this year, why is the current price actually diving sharply?
In the workshop of Fujian Liansheng Paper Co., Ltd., a large amount of corrugated paper and cardboard paper were piled up in the warehouse. The person in charge said that their finished paper inventory is currently 30,000 tons, which is about 30% higher than the same period last year. .
Yan Qicheng, deputy general manager of Fujian Liansheng Paper Co., Ltd.: Because the sales market demand is not so strong, customers do not have the demand for goods in advance. If you are really busy, when you have to place an order, key customers will be given priority, but not now.
A person in charge of the packaging company that produces cartons also told reporters that this year is the season with the most demanding orders in a year. The capacity can not meet the orders, but this year's situation is not the same.
Zhang Tongde, President of Tianjin Property-based Light Xuyang International Trade Co., Ltd.: There is a factory in Tianjin. In the past season, the monthly sales season should reach 80-90 million sales. Now only 60 million, so the production capacity is 30%. .
It is understood that the decline in demand for cartons is related to the decrease in export orders this year. In addition, due to the high fluctuations in paper prices in the past two years, some consumers who use cartons are also reducing the amount of cartons due to environmental protection and cost considerations. Jingdong promoted packaging and recycling, and Tmall launched a plastic express delivery box two years ago.
In addition, due to the continuous growth of papermaking profits and the withdrawal of small and medium-sized paper mills, large paper mills continue to increase the production capacity of pulp and base paper at home and abroad. The weakening of demand and the increase in supply are also a major reason for the current decline in paper prices.
Li Wei, Managing Director of Beijing Bowen Ruisi Business Consulting Co., Ltd.: In 2017, about 19 lines were counted, and about 4 million tons of cardboard and corrugated paper were put into production. In the first three quarters of 2018, China's imports of corrugated paper finished paper increased by 75% compared with last year. The demand is relatively weak, and the increase in supply is one reason why the paper price is not prosperous.
Waste paper acquisition moves forward, and the way upstream and downstream companies cooperate is closer
Frequent fluctuations in paper prices pose great risks to upstream and downstream companies. In order to stabilize price fluctuations, various links in the industrial chain are also seeking new development models.
Shanying Group is a paper group located in Putian, Fujian Province. Its regional sorting and recycling paper transfer station was established in the second half of 2017. Originally, the paper mills purchased waste papers from all levels of purchasers to the paper mills. This sorting center is a large-scale paper mill that will advance the acquisition and directly dock large supermarkets and other waste paper.
Chen Hao, General Manager of Huanyu Group Huanyu China Operations: We will move this acquisition work to the end customers, and then the supply quality and price of the entire market will form a guarantee to a certain extent.
It is understood that in the past two years, due to the tightening of the import waste paper policy, the paper price fluctuated frequently, which made the paper mill full of a sense of crisis in the procurement of domestic waste paper raw materials. At present, many large-scale papermaking enterprises have established standardized recycling paper sorting and processing centers in many places across the country, effectively gathering surrounding sources of goods, unifying regional recycling paper quality, and stabilizing prices.
Chen Ying, general manager of Shanying Group's China operations: Currently there are 8 in the country. In the first half of next year, the number of transfer stations will be around 12 to 15. The recycling scale of each should be about 20,000 tons per month.
Zhang Xiuhong, the general manager of Zhongnan Renewable Resources Co., Ltd.: This method can solve the problem of concentrated arrival, and can solve the problem of soaring prices and plunging.
In addition, paper companies are also trying to cooperate with downstream packaging companies and large end-user companies to recover industrial-grade recycled paper produced by end users, and to replace the paper cartons in the same amount, with only processing fees from finished paper to packaging.
Tong Yingying, Assistant Chairman of Xiamen Hexing Packaging and Printing Co., Ltd.: Sharing high-quality resources, able to better serve downstream customers and achieve a warming effect, which can better cope with risks.
Tang Yanju, deputy secretary-general of China Recycling Resources Recycling Association: Close cooperation between upstream and downstream to lock in some market price risks, which is also a trend and direction for close cooperation in the supply chain in the future.
As can be seen from the above, compared with previous years, this year's paper market is in a downturn, and the prices of raw paper and waste paper continue to decline. From May to now, the price of waste paper, corrugated paper and cardboard has fallen by 1,000 yuan/ton. Frequent fluctuations in prices have put pressure on upstream and downstream companies in the industry chain.
To this end, many large paper mills are currently building new development models: moving waste paper acquisition forward and directly docking with end users; building regional recycling paper sorting and processing centers... These actions mean that in the future In the industrial chain, upstream and downstream enterprises will adopt a more close cooperation approach to stabilize price fluctuations.